Current Ebola Outbreak Could Become The Largest on Record

The Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have said that the current Ebola outbreak could become the largest on record. Health officials still say that the risk to Americans is low.

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC or DR Congo) says that the number of confirmed Ebola cases has reached 1,274, including 360 deaths. Contact tracing covers only 30% of cases as the Bundibugyo virus spreads through refugee camps with over 1,100 infections and 250 deaths since May, when the outbreak was first noticed, according to a report by DongA Science. 

Jean Kaseya, the Director General of Africa CDC, said that in order to contain the spread of this virus, 80% of contacts of confirmed cases need to be traced. That is far below the current contact tracing rate of only 30%. Kaseya added that “community transmission is extremely severe.”

The current outbreak is spreading mainly in Ituri Province in eastern Congo. Since May, more than 1,100 people have tested positive for Ebola, and according to the Congolese Ministry of Health, over 250 deaths have been recorded. Because the virus may have spread for several months before it was detected, the actual number of deaths is believed to be higher. –DongA Science

Infectious disease experts generally estimate that each infected person has at least 20 contacts and around 40 contacts in urban areas. According to the Africa CDC, in refugee camps, the number of contacts can reach 120 per infected person.

Ebola is not airborne. It spreads through contact with bodily fluids. However, those in refugee camps are more susceptible to the virus.

Health officials are also saying that treatment facilities are filling up. That is going to add to the spread of the disease.

In emergency Ebola treatment facilities in eastern Congo, 95% of beds are already occupied by patients. Africa CDC announced plans to recruit 20,000 paid workers, mainly local youth and residents of affected areas, to carry out contact tracing, infection prevention education, and safe burial procedures over the coming weeks, accoridng to a report by DongA Science.

This outbreak has still not peaked. It is difficult to say when that will happen, considering contact tracing is getting much more difficult.