Pittsburgh Steelers set at 8.5 wins as Mike McCarthy takes over and Aaron Rodgers nears 43

There is typically just one thing that I truly root for in almost every sport: a winning bet. However, there are times that I see a team or player I love or dislike and feel like I am at least somewhat rooting for their success or downfall. The Pittsburgh Steelers are a team that I kind of want to see fall apart for a variety of reasons, but will this be the year they do stumble?

Last year

It was a year of high expectations for the Steelers, and thanks to a bit of luck, they at least still made it to the postseason. Aaron Rodgers came in and increased their potential before the year began, and honestly, he had a pretty good season. Rodgers can be criticized for a lot of off-field oddities, but when he is between the lines, he is still pretty damn good. The problem with the Steelers last year was a lack of consistency. They had only two winning streaks; both were three games. They had some questionable losses — losing to the Bengals without Joe Burrow and the Browns led by Shedeur Sanders. They were incredibly lucky to beat the Ravens in the last game of the season, and then didn’t bother showing up against the Texans.

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Offseason additions and subtractions

That loss to the Texans seems to have led to the resignation of Mike Tomlin. After 19 seasons at the helm, none with a losing record, the team has turned to Mike McCarthy. How McCarthy continues to get jobs is a bit beyond me. He had success with Rodgers years ago, and is 174-112, but I feel like everywhere he goes comes up short of expectations. Maybe the problem is the expectations. He is trying to reshape a team that turned out 10+ wins basically every season. The team is banking that Rodgers can play well in his final season and added Michael Pittman Jr. as well as Germie Bernard to the receiving room. They also added a cornerback, Jamel Dean, who should help boost their defense.

Roster

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I guess, like most teams, the Steelers will go as far as their quarterback can take them. Rodgers is a talented player, but he like 90 years old. Okay, he will be 43 by the time the season is over. If he can play slightly better than an average quarterback, there should be enough weapons to get the team back into contention. DK Metcalf is a freak and Rodgers connected with him well last year. Their offense should be at least league average. On defense, they still have TJ Watt and Cameron Heyward. I like their linebackers and their cornerbacks, so I do think they will have a chance to be at least a fairly competent defense.

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Betting Outlook

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The books don’t seem to think that the Steelers will be very good. They have them at 8.5 wins with the juice on the under. Part of that has to be due to the Ravens having a new voice in their locker room, and Joe Burrow coming back for the Bengals. Still, this schedule doesn’t look overly difficult for the Steelers. You have to assume they split most games with their division as usual. I think they could beat at least five other teams. After that you do start to get into some questions about where the wins will come from. I personally would stay away from the overall teams, but I’d lean to the over because the Steelers find ways to win — will that happen without Tomlin, though?

There is a bet on the division wins – over 2.5 – but it is at -180 which is just too high for me to justify. I do like them to have more wins than the Colts, and they are -110 to do that.

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