This article was originally published by Tyler Durden at ZeroHedge.
Brent crude surged 27% over two weeks to settle at $96.78 a barrel on Friday, briefly breaching $100 this past week as traders priced in a higher war-risk premium into energy markets amid simultaneous chokepoint threats to the Strait of Hormuz and the southern Red Sea.
Meanwhile, the US appeared to pause its 13-day campaign of daily overnight strikes against Iran. While there was no indication that the operational halt would extend into next week, the pause certainly reinforces the diplomatic signals highlighted in our US-Iran wrap on Friday.
However, there was an escalation overnight with Saudi-led strikes on Iran-backed Houthi targets in Hodeida. This comes after the terror group attacked multiple Saudi-linked tankers in the southern Red Sea area.
Houthis escalate with attacks against Saudi Arabia:
Saudi Arabian oil refinery reportedly hit by Houthi missile:
The confrontation threatens to open a second major front in the Gulf conflict. With traffic through Hormuz largely paralyzed, sustained Houthi attacks on Yanbu or ships entering Bab al-Mandab Strait could disrupt millions of barrels of Saudi exports, raise shipping costs, and further tighten physical markets.
Hormuz Traffic
Bab al-Mandab Strait Traffic
Commodity desks from JPMorgan, RBC, Goldman Sachs and others warned this past week that spreading “strait chaos” across the Gulf and widening disruptions to regional energy flows could drive further upside in crude if the conflict persists. Brent has returned to the $90s after briefly trading above $100 a barrel.
Here’s what top commodity desks are saying:
•Goldman Warns Brent Could Top $120 If Gulf Chokepoint Crisis Deepens
•RBC Commodities Chief Warns “War Entering Dangerous Phase” As Chokepoint Chaos Risks Oil Above 2008 Peak
•Gas Prices Nearing Levels That Could Push Trump Towards Iran Talks, Says JPM Commodities Expert
And then there’s this:
•Nine Potential Commodity Wildcards As “Once-A-Decade” Shocks Become New Normal
Red Sea disruption already materialized on Friday when a Hong Kong-flagged supertanker decided to turn away before reaching Bab el-Mandeb and to instead transit around the Cape of Good Hope, reinforcing longer freight times, higher rates, and more disruptions:
•Oil Tanker Makes Red Sea U-Turn After Houthi Threats, Reroutes Around Africa In Costly Transit
There is good news because US-allied Gulf countries are either planning or already developing new pipeline and port projects to bypass the Hormuz chokepoint entirely, which in the long run will erode Tehran’s leverage on the critical waterway:
•Seven Pipeline Projects That Could Break Iran’s Grip On Hormuz Chokepoint
Here are the latest overnight developments, courtesy of Bloomberg:
US Strikes & Pause
• Iran reported no US strikes overnight on Saturday, marking an apparent break after nearly two weeks of consecutive nightly US attacks.
• US strikes had progressively expanded in scope over two weeks, targeting bridges and infrastructure deeper inside Iran, following a collapsed ceasefire and renewed fighting over the Strait of Hormuz.
• Trump said on Friday he has not yet made a decision on whether to conduct major strikes against Iran, while noting US-Iran talks are continuing through VP Vance, Secretary Rubio, and others.
• Trump had previously told Axios he was considering a “massive attack” on Iran, saying the country “hasn’t received enough pain yet” and is not ready to make a deal.
Strait of Hormuz
• Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said on Saturday they stopped four ships attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz over the past 24 hours after firing warning shots.
• The US and UK are planning a high-level international conference in London next week focused on forming a coalition to protect maritime shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, according to two European diplomats and other sources.
• An LPG tanker with 28 Indian crew members was attacked in Iranian territorial waters on Friday; India’s embassy confirmed the crew is safe.
Regional Escalation
• Houthis claimed to have struck Saudi Arabia with missiles on Saturday morning, targeting southern Saudi provinces; Saudi authorities issued emergency warnings before lifting them for Jazan.
• Bahrain and Kuwait secretly sent warplanes to strike drone- and missile-storage depots inside Iran earlier this month, according to people familiar with the matter, their first such direct retaliation against Tehran.
Diplomacy & Sanctions
• China urged Iran and the US to return to implementing their ceasefire memorandum, with Foreign Minister Wang Yi expressing deep concern over renewed escalation at an SCO meeting in Kyrgyzstan on Friday.
• Pakistan is exploring a path toward resuming stalled US-Iran talks following a push initiated by China, according to three Pakistani sources cited by Reuters; obstacles to talks remain high.
• The US Treasury imposed new sanctions on Friday on the network of Iranian financier Babak Zanjani, targeting four individuals and nine entities linked to sanctions evasion and digital asset exchanges.
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